StrategyWorld.org is proud to announce that Marshall Goldsmith’s latest book, What Got You Here Won’t Get You There: How Successful People Become Even More Successful, is the #1 best selling business book in the United States (as ranked by both the Wall Street Journal and USA Today).
Congratulations, Marshall! We’re going to have some excerpts from the book here shortly, so stay tuned.
Add comment January 31st, 2007
Back in 1999, Peter Drucker wrote about “The Real Meaning of the Merger Boom.” In a punchy essay for the Conference Board’s Annual Report, the guru for all gurus proclaimed, “there is no merger boom today.” End of story.
In fact, he made clear that “in total dollar volume,” it was a zero sum game. De-mergers, unnoticed, were equal to the mergers. Moreover, “the majority of today’s mergers are defensive, the majority of yesterday’s were offensive.” If anything, this has simply become more the case in 2006 and 2007. For example, the major auto companies, so enamored of mergers for a while, have now taken to joint ventures. Many, many mergers today are consolidation plays, tactical efforts to hang on in dying businesses, pulling together wounded enterprises that think they can afford heart surgery when they are large enough to pay the bill.
Drucker could have gone on to point out that history is littered with mergers that subtracted value for shareholders and society. Even the wave of industry consolidations that have taken place from 2000-2007 may in the end prove strategically short-sighted –investments in dying industries without regard to tomorrow.
“The truly important developments in corporate and economic structure today are not the mergers and de-mergers. They are, largely unnoticed or at least unreported, new and different ways of corporate structure, corporate growth, and corporate strategy….the real boom has been in alliances of all kinds, such as partnerships, a big business buying a minority stake in a small one, cooperative agreements in research or marketing, joint ventures, and, often, ‘handshake agreements’ with few formal and legally binding controls behind them.”
Drucker spotted the real boom – alliances. But an utter fascination with the doings of Wall Street, even in our highest political councils, has distracted all of us, riveting us on merger headlines and concealing from us this deep enduring trend of our time.
The most adroit of a new breed of global chief executive gets it. Such is Carlos Ghosn who turned around Japan’s Nissan Auto, peeling away layers of fat instead of adding extraneous divisions. He went from massive losses to $7 billion in profits and wiped out $23 billion of debt. Nissan’s 11% operating profit margin has made it the most profitable of the world’s big automakers (See Economist, February 26, 2005, p. 66). Now to head Renault as well, Ghosn has said that the power of the alliance between them lies “in its respect for the identities of the two companies, and on the other, in the necessity of developing synergies.” If Nissan had been fused with Renault, failure would have followed.
We ourselves are very aware of the negatives that crop up with mergers. It was only a short time after Allegheny Airlines absorbed PSA and Piedmont Airlines (both better companies than it incidentally) that the combined market value of the three added up to less than the value of each of the components prior to their homogenization. This unhappy trinity, once known as Agony Airlines to wags in the Northeast, has since become the teetering bankrupt U.S. Airways, affectionately called UseLess Airways by its passengers. After many false re-starts, it is hoped that America West’s management, which took over U.S. Air, can run the new combined airline to better effect.
As well, one can not overestimate the size of the merger friction costs imposed by investment bankers, lawyers, and accountants who created and distorted this and other stillborn combinations. Reduced friction costs for continuing operations have traditionally been the excuse for bloated business combinations and expensive asset bases, but this does not at all account for the absolutely horrendous sunk costs imposed by middlemen in the merger/de-merger process. In fact, the mechanics of mergering themselves often distort the shape of the resulting enterprise, creating a lumbering creature nobody envisioned. But the financial and strategic costs that lard the merger process are well obscured by the middlemen and their sales people who make such a good living off of such transactions.
There are broad conceptual reasons as well why a collaborative model free of hierarchy and legalistic strictures is productive of much more economic value. With increasing amounts of the work to be done by corporations in advanced economies consisting of knowledge and professional services chores involving far different workflows, the fuel for business activity consists of pockets of intelligence that are broadly distributed throughout the world, often outside the corporation. One cannot accumulate the human resources one needs to play on a global scale within one’s walls. Organizations need to tap into a multitude of other organizations. And they need to avail themselves of workers strewn about the globe—some in outsourcing companies and others entirely on their own.
Charles Handy finds that “many organizations have more people working outside them than they have inside them.” Furthermore, “only about half the working population is working inside an organization.” The successful company, with perhaps only 20% of its workforce on its own payrolls, has to learn to virtually coordinate companies and independent workers who are bound to it by no more than a handshake. Handy chats about this brave new world in “The Future of Work in a Changing World” in an interview with Aurora Online.
For the past 10 years the goal of our own staff has been to divine the rules of the road for the still emerging collaborative enterprise. In every way, they fly in the face of all the dogmas we laid out for the corporation in the 20th century. For this reason, the postulates of collaboration are usually counter-intuitive. Consider here just two examples:
Rule 1: At best the chief executive should be a fish out of water. Take a look at Nissan. Carlos Ghosn was born in Brazil in a Lebanese immigrant family, then had a French education first in Lebanon and later at the Ecole Polytechnique where he studied engineering. For openers he turned around Michelin, the tire company, in Brazil to begin with, then in America. He went on to become a cost-cutter at Renault. Louis Schweitzer, the very original business mind who headed up Renault, posted him to Nissan with little in-France business experience and not even a smidgeon of Japanese grounding in his system. But he was effective because he could bring a pan-global outsider’s objectivity to Nissan. He succeeded in part because he was an alien from outer space. He was the stranger who could see what makes the natives tick and who had no sentimental ties to sever as he cleaned house.
Rule 2: The best alliances are very, very unlikely. For instance, Kirin Beer, once the IBM of the Japanese beer business, came to George Rathmann of Amgen as he was getting ready to ramp up production of Epogen. It contributed its fermentation production techniques to the biotech company, as well as a slug of capital. Rathmann has since acknowledged that its role was central to the growth of Amgen into a multi-billion dollar company. Most likely, a start up will find that the process knowledge it really needs lies 10,000 miles away in a dramatically different industry and in a vastly different culture. But, of course, the Japanese bring special skills and excellence to manufacturing which is why, as we used to say, that the American dream got interrupted by the Japanese clock radio.
Alliances are best, then, if they overcome all the inbreeding tendencies of conventional businessmen. The dynamics of mergerdom tend to preclude such unlikely alliances.
What’s at issue here is how to devise an organizational model that encourages rapid, insistent global learning by an organization. As we have said elsewhere in “Better Learning Networks,” (see item #187) researchers at the Santa Fe Institute have come to understand that there is an optimal coupling within an organization that encourages learning. It is simply too hard for knowledge to interpenetrate an organization where the bonds are made of steel rather than nervous tissue.
Those who think about software systems have come up with the same insight in respect to information systems. Ubiquity interviewed us about collaboration a while back. There we reference an article by John Seely Brown and John Hagel called “The Joy of Flex” in which they said, “”Loose coupling makes it easier to improvise without worrying about disruptions elsewhere in the system.” While hardwired systems afford short-term cost advantages, they are costly in the end, since they cannot accommodate the disruptions imposed by global realities. Likewise, we would contend, merged companies achieve a rigidity that is antagonistic to agile behavior.
If alliances are the fluid organizational form that should dominate our business activity, many head-in-the-sand executives don’t know it. Squabblers debate about the value of strategic alliances and how to make them work. This is all rather academic. Alliances are very much a fact of life in our lean business society, and so the only option for the business generalissimo is to saddle up the horse and see if he can ride this new kind of stallion.
Well, the future is always a bit uncomfortable until it is past.
1 comment January 29th, 2007
Now that Bob Nardelli is out at the Home Depot the armchair quarterbacks and hindsight pundits are full of theories about “the fatal flaws” and the “mental errors” that caused his sour (albeit lucrative) exit.I think they all (so far) have missed the most significant factor. It wasn’t primarily that Nardelli’s “political” skills were lacking or that his strategy was wrong ( or even the curse of Six Sigma). In fact at the root of his predicament was something that most people would call a strength not a weakness. (And it’s a strength you, Bob, and I probably share).
The big reason Nardelli was, from the beginning, never going to win at Home Depot was that he recognizes the need for change very quickly and acts on it.
I know that seems contradictory so let me explain.
In the late 1990s I spent almost five years writing and researching the reasons that companies move too slow. One of the biggest obstacles I had to address was the powerful urge to hold on to the status quo and the incredible unwillingness among many people to let go.
As a result I, along with a lot of other executives, worked on strategies to open up when hearing new ideas and to embrace change more quickly. From what I’ve read Nardelli had done much the same during his tenure at GE.
But as the experts explain, “good things often have unintended (negative) consequences.”
What unintended consequence comes from learning to recognize the need for change quickly and act without delay? It’s often a huge blind spot.
Many early adapters and fast acting managers have a hard time imagining that others do not see what they see and they therefore radically misinterpret or underestimate what it will take to get the majority of their associates to buy-in.
From the beginning there were signs that Nardelli didn’t have enough buy-in at the Home Depot. People in the stores were whispering, “Nardelli has no retail background” and “The board is paying him too much money.” “He doesn’t get it,” senior executives grumbled, “Everything he’s doing is counter-culture.” Even Wall Street didn’t buy-in. “The market’s getting saturated,” one expert wrote. “I wouldn’t be in a rush to buy it [Home Depot’s stock].” (This was at a time that Nardelli’s turnaround efforts were barely off the drawing board.)
Now as someone who embraced change and acted quickly in the past Nardelli saw these people sitting on their hands and making negative comments and decided that was proof positive that they were the wrong people for the new situation.
And he was partly right. About 20 percent of the average company won’t ever pitch in and try new ideas or innovations.
But that leaves a large group of people who may be right for the job but who stay on the fence longer that the leaders expect. They look like immovable resisters, but they’re not. They are simply more average folks, people who need to see that the change is safe and likely to succeed before they will give a strategy their buy-in.
This is the critical lesson I’ve learned in the last three years as I’ve been researching the art of execution. Not enough buy-in one of the four big reasons why half of all the best laid plans fail. But it’s not callousness or stupidity that causes executives to underestimate the challenge and assume the worst. It’s that many of us have the eyes of the early adapter. We’ve opened our minds to what we see as an obvious need for change. And we assume that resistance is irrational (or sinister). We lose good people and take a big step back. In the end that causes us to miss our announced milestones and disappoint our stakeholders.
So now we have an opportunity to learn from the mistakes of another (a great way to gain experience for cheap). Here’s the lesson: Every well thought out strategy need an equally well thought out plan to get enough buy-in. That plan starts with realizing that everyone isn’t like us. Many are slower to buy-in. But if they see the path is safe and likely to succeed they will (also) follow through.
Add comment January 8th, 2007
This past year U.S. News teamed with the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government to evaluate the state of leadership.
The results were dismal:
More than half of Americans—56 percent—say they’re not proud of the country’s leaders. Two thirds and more say the country is in a leadership crisis. Nearly three quarters say the nation will decline without better leadership.
Eighty-three percent of Americans said corporate leaders are more concerned with the bottom line than with running their companies well, 93 percent say political leaders spend too much time attacking their opponents, and only 39 percent say leaders have high ethical standards.
What’s new you ask? Well, the study, led by Warren Bennis and David Gergen, also dug up a few authentic leaders — rating the nominees from to 1 to 5 based on how well they met the following criteria:
Sets Direction (25%)
Achieves Results (50%)
Cultivates a Culture of Growth (25%)
Unfortunately, not many business leaders made the cut.
No mention of Branson, Gates, or Jobs.
Business leaders making the grade include Warren Buffet, A.G. Lafley, and Marilyn Carlson Nelson.
1 comment January 1st, 2007
Here’s a report you’ll be interested in: The Globalization of White-Collar Work: The Facts and Fallout of Next-Generation Offshoring from Duke’s Fuqua School of Business and Booz Allen Hamilton.
The news? Apparently offshoring is no longer “all about moving jobs elsewhere; increasingly, it’s about sourcing talent everywhere.”
And: “…what used to be a tactical labor cost-saving exercise is now a strategic imperative of competing for talent globally. White-collar work can be performed where it makes the most sense and saves the most cents. More important, a looming shortage of technically trained talent, such as engineers and computer scientists, in advanced economies will require the ability to source and manage such talent globally.”
Here are the 5 main points:
1. Labor arbitrage is giving way to accessing talent as the primary driver of next-generation offshoring.
2. Offshoring high-skilled functions does not replace jobs onshore.
3. Companies look elsewhere because they can’t get it at home.
4. Where you offshore depends on what you offshore.
5. The obstacles to successful offshoring are increasingly internal and organizational.
The reports also says that higher skilled jobs (like R&D, Marketing, and Design) won’t go away because of this growing global talent shortage. Instead firms will compete globally for brain power, regardless of location.
Sorry, I don’t buy that. China’s working hard on educating the next generation of designers, and in India you’re going to see the next generation of innovation. (I’ll get John Hagel to talk about this soon.)
Add comment December 25th, 2006
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